RONA Math? Why the Numbers are…DEAD ON ARRIVAL!
Simple math tells us that 1+1= 2. But easy math has not been used much when politicians, analysts, naysayers, and the media describe the impact of Covid-19 pandemic (Rona) on America.
Today, we are in a hot bed of debate on the vagrancies of a pandemic that none of us completely understands or wants to recognize as real.
Unless, we have lost a loved one or know someone who has passed. Only then, can we feel the true impact of this pandemic’s wrath on our lives. Instead, we are bombarded with data, mashed up “info-drama,” that illuminates the national, state and local Rona hot-spots. We are stuck in a limbo of self-isolation, with masks hiding our faces and a rapidly dying economy. We are searching for the truth or any answers that make sense. We all want this nightmare to end quickly!
Instead, we are inundated with essential worker Hero & She-ro stories. Then, bored by political hack-attacks about the impact of the pandemic and a multitude of conspiracy theories behind it. PuroChisme!
We are spoon fed the daily death count from the Rona virus. But what do those mortality numbers really mean? How does the media interpret the impact and accuracy of the Covid-19 numbers? Death ratios? Graph/Chart mortality illustrations? What do they mean to me and you?
Death projections have gone up from the 60,000 range to today's 100,000 to 240,000 figure.Critics argue that death counts include, people who were already close to death with underlying disease and poor health conditions.
They also claim that the death count is being manipulated by municipalities, to include “regular deaths,” so cities and states can claim much needed federal assistance.
Why do we have so many people pushing back against the impact of Rona on their lives? Some, are even arming themselves as they protest city hall? Why are people ready to fight for the right to walk freely at beaches and parks and demanding that the government bring main street back to normalcy?
Is it because, they think the Center for Disease Control and/or health care professionals have overrated the Rona?
Or because people have heard that more people die from the seasonal flu than the Rona?” PuroChisme perhaps?
Maybe, all the push back against self-isolation and the Nacho-Libre mascaras is because people believe the Rona is part of a conspiracy to create power for the “DEMS” or some hideous attack by los Chinos.
Or maybe it's a supposed fascist take over by Neocons? PuroChisme has heard all the Rona noise and decided to take a look at the key data points that could refute the pedo being tossed around.
Sabes que, the naysayers may not be “totally” wrong in making some of these claims. De veras! We may never know since most studies agree that validating the cause of death today is not possible. Because unreported cases and deaths are not included in most fatality reports, it is difficult to determine exactly what the rate of death from COVID-19 is in any country around the world.
The spread of covid-19 is most often measured by two numbers: how many people are infected, and how many have died. The first is very uncertain.
Some Rona carriers show no symptoms, and most countries do not test people who seem healthy.
The UK, Italy, and Spain, topped the Covid-19 death list for 2020, in Europe. And their death counts continue to grow, albeit more slowly right now.
And, the United States tops all countries in deaths caused by the Rona. Ironically, the number of people dying from the Rona is important to consider.
Because data on infections are unreliable, researchers have focused on deaths. Yeah, simple math! A study completed by Financial Times (FT) analyzed 13 European countries overall fatalities.
To calculate excess deaths, the FT compared deaths in Europe from all causes in March and April 2020, to the average death for the same period between 2015 and 2019. The total deaths amounted to a 50 per cent rise in overall mortality relative to the historical average for the locations studied in the five-year period.
According to John Elflein, Research analyst with Statistica, as of May 3rd, 2020, the average daily death toll due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) in the U.S. was almost 870 since the occurrence of the first known case on February 15th. Based on data from 2019, almost eight thousand people die every day in the United States from all causes.
In comparison, during the 2018-2019 (October to April) influenza season, around 161 people died daily on average from influenza.
Taking the latest numbers into account, it seems that at this moment around one out of eight deaths in the United States every day have involved the Covid-19. These statistics suggest that current mortality numbers may also understate the true death count attributed to the Rona.
Despite, homicide and vehicular deaths having gone down during the last two months in the United States, we still have an excess fatality rate caused by the Rona pandemic. To quote Dr. Ed Donoghue, a forensic pathology colleague at the Georgia Bureau of Investigation, "No matter how these deaths are currently being attributed, after this pandemic terminates…we will find that the number of COVID-19 deaths has been grossly underestimated."
So what does all this math add up to? Well, first of all, it disputes the fake news about the regular flu being worse than the Rona. Not right now, amidst what some experts believe is only the first wave of the pandemic.
More importantly, it should not matter what people died from this year. What matters is that more people have died in 2020, than the average death toll for the last four years in the same period.
Third, until we can all be sure (via large scale tests) about the extent of Rona exposure, we should not be in a hurry to hit the calles!
It’s a shame that the new palabras for describing death include; "regular, excess and Covid-19." But their definitions are important, if we are to come to terms with Rona's impact, remedies, and recovery.
But if you still don’t want to believe the death count comparisons…ask yourself why? Is it about YOU? Or should it be about love for life that matters most to all of us?
A person with outward courage dares to die,
but one with inner courage dares to live